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What Predicts Points Per Game

As we head into week 4 of the college football season, I wanted to provide a quick look at what the highest-scoring teams are doing better than anyone else. If you want to get my data file with complete stats for every FBS team, be sure to get your copy at

Yards Per game

Yards Per Game is the strongest predictor of points per game with a predictive strength of 77% as you can see from the linear relationship shown below.

Relationship between Yards per Game & Points Per Game

Rush Yards Per Attempt

Rush Yards Per Attempt drives Points per game with a predictive strength of 49%

Relationship between Yards Per Carry & Points Per Game

Explosive Plays of +20 yards drives points per game with a predictive strength of 42%

Relationship between +20 Yard explosive plays & Points per game

Don't Settle for Field Goals

Teams who score TD's in the Red Zone naturally score more points. Red Zone Td's drive Points Per Game with predictive strength of 51%

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